US 'Inflation Demon' Still Alive As Government Spending Runs Wild

August 01, 2024

The US hasn't squashed inflation yet as the government continues to rack up a hefty spending bill, according to Morgan Stanley investing senior vice president Jim Lacamp.

Consumer inflation has slowed to an annual rate of 3.1% in November from a peak of more than 9% in June 2022, though it's still above the Fed's 2% target.

"The inflation demon hasn't really been killed if the government is going to keep sloshing taxpayer dollars around next year. And it's an election year, so they probably will," Lacamp said in an interview with Fox Business on Monday.

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The US's total debt balance notched a record $33 trillion this year. And that debt pile is on track to grow to $50 trillion over the next decade, according to one Bank of America estimate.

That pace of spending spells bad news for prices, as debt can fuel inflation in the economy.

Lacamp also suggested the recent downtrend in consumer and producer prices is being fueled by a slowing economy.

The economy slipped into hard landing the last 16 out of 17 times the market was calling for a soft landing, he added.

Economists have been warning of a potential downturn over the last year as the Fed began to aggressively raise interest rates in the economy. Higher rates have helped cooled inflation, but risk tipping the economy into a recession, experts say, with warning signs already emerging in key areas of the market.

"I think we have some real issues and I don't think necessarily that the inflation monster has been slayed," Lacamp added.

Investors are expecting the Fed to soon slash interest rates, but could actually be a double-edged sword for markets, some Wall Street strategists say, as rate cuts indicate the economy is slowing or already on its way to a recession.

UBS predicted the Fed could slash interest rates 275 basis-points next year as the US tips into a recession mid-2024. Société Générale is anticipating 150 basis-points of rate cuts combined with a mild recession next year.

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