Bitcoin Price to Crash 13% to $50k Amid Lower ETF Demand, Liquidity

July 11, 2024

Bitcoin's break below $58,000 on Wednesday clears a path for it to fall as low as $50,000, Standard Chartered said in new research.
The crypto's decline has been driven by rising ETF outflows and falling US liquidity levels.
But the firm has long been bullish on bitcoin, and still expects the token to reach $150,000 this year.

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Deteriorating conditions are denting the Bitcoin rally, with this week's drop below $60,000 putting it en route for an even lower price range.

According to commentary from Standard Chartered, the apex token could temporarily reach as low as $50,000, signaling an over 13% drop from current levels.

As of 9 a.m. ET on Wednesday, bitcoin is trading at $57,790.

Steering this decline are both crypto and macroeconomic drivers, Head of FX Research Geoff Kendrick wrote on Wednesday. Among these are shrinking investments in spot bitcoin ETFs, funds that first sparked the rally at the year's start.

"On the crypto-specific, we have now had five days in a row of outflows from the US spot ETFs and, as importantly, we are now below the average ETF purchase price of around 58k," he said. "This means that more than half of the spot ETF positions are under water and so the risk of liquidation of some of them must be considered as well."

The crypto industry also got no consolation from headlines in Hong Kong on Tuesday, where six bitcoin and ethereum spot ETFs were launched. Most of the news focused on the funds' low turnover volume, even though their net asset positions were promising, Kendrick said.

Also wearing on bitcoin are the US' falling liquidity measures, which have rapidly declined since mid-April, he noted.

"Of course liquidity matters when it matters, but with a backdrop of strong US inflation data and less likelihood of Fed rate cuts it matters at the moment," Kendrick said.

That's not to say that Standard Chartered is turning sour on bitcoin, which it has long forecast as rising to $150,000 by this year's end. Just last week, Kendrick published a note where he reiterated the price target, despite rising macroeconomic strains.

Adding to his optimism was bitcoin's recent halving event, which would cut the amount of produced supply — therefore lowering how much ETF inflows were necessary to keep prices rising.

In March, crypto enthusiast Mike Novogratz added that bitcoin is unlikely to drop past $50,000 again, as the recent rally is driven less by macroeconomic factors, but by investor adoption of the crypto.

If a correction to $50,000 occurred, he's outlined that it would only be followed by a surge higher.

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